Tennis · resolved market
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 Swiss Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f00c57d61804e1c8793ce7e377475161110fbab72f9a60033778804c5bcd00c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 56c | 1,356$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.7 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,066$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 42c | 809.08$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.49 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…550bbacked Yes | 48c | 387.5$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 58c | 382.76$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.76 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 48c | 169.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 58c | 116$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 61c | 52.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed No | 63c | 42.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Yes | 48c | 36.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…7badbacked Yes | 40c | 35.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 Swiss Open?this page
- Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 Swiss Open?Yes won
- Will Juan Manuel Cerundolo win the 2025 Swiss Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.