Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f0504938f055585065fab2595c699c0dbf8077c67a354c1ffedf610f1f8607c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Under | 74c | 1,037$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.17 | 409 | 70.2%287 W · 122 L | +30.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…d4aebacked Under | 72c | 429.72$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.32 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Over | 28c | 402.36$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 440 | 39.5%174 W · 266 L | -25.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 28c | 203$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 257 | 43.2%111 W · 146 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Under | 73c | 71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 464 | 48.9%227 W · 237 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,343 | 49%658 W · 685 L | -26.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc780…40a4backed Under | 79c | 37.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 55c | 24.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,181 | 66%780 W · 401 L | +70.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Under | 68c | 23.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 199 | 37.2%74 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Under | 71c | 21.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 53c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1,004 | 54.5%547 W · 457 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb29a…ae79backed Under | 78c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…a5babacked Under | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular SeasonNightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen - Game 1 WinnerNightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen - Game 2 WinnerNightBirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.