Lol · resolved market
LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6959b0faab5e33143d5a0b71641c98cf2c217d5327dced1c1faa84688f093031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NightBirdsof NightBirds, CITA Kaizen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed CITA Kaizen | 4c | 1,809$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 2,540 | 39.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L | -79.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…bdebbacked CITA Kaizen | 15c | 1,233$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.56 | 203 | 34%69 W · 134 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed CITA Kaizen | 22c | 999.91$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.98 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0587…c40bbacked CITA Kaizen | 20c | 741.96$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 170 | 45.9%78 W · 92 L | +16.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…46f8backed CITA Kaizen | 21c | 699.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 279 | 41.2%115 W · 164 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed CITA Kaizen | 17c | 625.84$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 483 | 38.7%187 W · 296 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed CITA Kaizen | 16c | 616.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 205 | 57.1%117 W · 88 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…50bebacked CITA Kaizen | 17c | 557$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…d575backed NightBirds | 78c | 511.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked CITA Kaizen | 18c | 425.22$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 1,348 | 47.3%637 W · 711 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec8…1d07backed CITA Kaizen | 23c | 387.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 125 | 53.6%67 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed CITA Kaizen | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 2,237 | 33.3%745 W · 1,492 L | -71.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked CITA Kaizen | 13c | 323.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 2,020 | 30.5%617 W · 1,403 L | -172.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed CITA Kaizen | 22c | 318.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 1,143 | 38.8%444 W · 699 L | -46.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…e497backed CITA Kaizen | 17c | 306.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed CITA Kaizen | 11c | 217.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked CITA Kaizen | 15c | 213$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 560 | 34.8%195 W · 365 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…a7d5backed CITA Kaizen | 24c | 210.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed CITA Kaizen | 24c | 184.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 282 | 46.5%131 W · 151 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b51…cf1ebacked CITA Kaizen | 16c | 178.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked CITA Kaizen | 15c | 156.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 2,707 | 35.9%972 W · 1,735 L | -152.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd2…2b8fbacked CITA Kaizen | 17c | 149$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 440 | 51.4%226 W · 214 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed NightBirds | 75c | 126.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 690 | 41.3%285 W · 405 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b21…1f5cbacked CITA Kaizen | 20c | 122.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed CITA Kaizen | 17c | 112.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,852 | 39.8%738 W · 1,114 L | -64.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…bc2fbacked NightBirds | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 520 | 62.3%324 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…215fbacked CITA Kaizen | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…4593backed CITA Kaizen | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed CITA Kaizen | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,265 | 42.8%541 W · 724 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…a744backed CITA Kaizen | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 545 | 45.7%249 W · 296 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755f…2cffbacked NightBirds | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 259 | 62.5%162 W · 97 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb35f…cf4cbacked CITA Kaizen | 20c | 89.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 481 | 47.2%227 W · 254 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd11…67b1backed CITA Kaizen | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bed…5cd6backed NightBirds | 72c | 62.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4509…58aebacked NightBirds | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,082 | 39.5%427 W · 655 L | -78.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked NightBirds | 78c | 58.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -52.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc780…40a4backed CITA Kaizen | 22c | 55.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc206…adf8backed CITA Kaizen | 21c | 51.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…a3d5backed NightBirds | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed NightBirds | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1,343 | 49%658 W · 685 L | -26.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…6cb9backed NightBirds | 72c | 41.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…476dbacked NightBirds | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 242 | 71.9%174 W · 68 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…4d75backed NightBirds | 78c | 37.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 610 | 55.7%340 W · 270 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed NightBirds | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 251 | 42.6%107 W · 144 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed NightBirds | 78c | 29.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 449 | 38.1%171 W · 278 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…605abacked NightBirds | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed NightBirds | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1,244 | 39.7%494 W · 750 L | -69.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…4737backed NightBirds | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 88 | 76.1%67 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…eb72backed NightBirds | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular SeasonNightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen - Game 2 WinnerNightBirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.