Lol · resolved market
LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06da3ae77c282660948906cb5595bc480655e130c3675fbfc3b9264c84294cd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NightBirdsof NightBirds, CITA Kaizen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf163…ca34backed NightBirds | 31c | 1,184$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.55 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +45.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked CITA Kaizen | 77c | 1,147$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.38 | 261 | 64.4%168 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35f…cf4cbacked NightBirds | 55c | 1,098$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.83 | 448 | 46.2%207 W · 241 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed CITA Kaizen | 22c | 999.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed CITA Kaizen | 17c | 622.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 1,826 | 39.9%728 W · 1,098 L | -61.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…b613backed CITA Kaizen | 66c | 556.28$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.52 | 256 | 60.5%155 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked CITA Kaizen | 15c | 542.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 1,971 | 30.5%601 W · 1,370 L | -170.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed CITA Kaizen | 5c | 451.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 478 | 38.7%185 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…a3d5backed CITA Kaizen | 66c | 451.07$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.25 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b21…1f5cbacked CITA Kaizen | 70c | 428.84$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f04…1fb0backed CITA Kaizen | 62c | 405.63$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed CITA Kaizen | 17c | 380.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…7d7bbacked CITA Kaizen | 75c | 327.91$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.82 | 665 | 59.5%396 W · 269 L | +72.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed CITA Kaizen | 52c | 320.77$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.95 | 690 | 41.3%285 W · 405 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b8…149bbacked NightBirds | 48c | 303.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.75 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4b…0113backed NightBirds | 18c | 231.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +80%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed NightBirds | 30c | 210.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.01 | 637 | 42.7%272 W · 365 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed CITA Kaizen | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 634 | 26%165 W · 469 L | -90.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -54%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…bdebbacked CITA Kaizen | 19c | 177.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 203 | 34%69 W · 134 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2c…358dbacked NightBirds | 43c | 176.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked NightBirds | 29c | 174.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed NightBirds | 41c | 155.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 1,113 | 39%434 W · 679 L | -44.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…7acbbacked CITA Kaizen | 18c | 140.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…38babacked NightBirds | 44c | 137.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 1,443 | 43.4%626 W · 817 L | +105.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…a744backed CITA Kaizen | 15c | 130.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 529 | 45.9%243 W · 286 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…e9f8backed NightBirds | 34c | 117.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…cba4backed NightBirds | 52c | 111.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 535 | 45.2%242 W · 293 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…215fbacked CITA Kaizen | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed CITA Kaizen | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 462 | 48.9%226 W · 236 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…776fbacked NightBirds | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4509…58aebacked CITA Kaizen | 52c | 73.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 1,055 | 39.6%418 W · 637 L | -74.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked CITA Kaizen | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,318 | 47.3%624 W · 694 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed NightBirds | 30c | 68.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 1,543 | 54.8%845 W · 698 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked CITA Kaizen | 15c | 66.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 117 | 35%41 W · 76 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df3…9ac3backed NightBirds | 35c | 63.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 420 | 55%231 W · 189 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…c264backed CITA Kaizen | 63c | 62.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 799 | 73.3%586 W · 213 L | +45.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked CITA Kaizen | 27c | 56.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,357 | 31.2%423 W · 934 L | -129.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked CITA Kaizen | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 228 | 63.2%144 W · 84 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…e129backed NightBirds | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc780…40a4backed CITA Kaizen | 22c | 50.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed CITA Kaizen | 57c | 50.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1,170 | 66.2%774 W · 396 L | +69.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed NightBirds | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed NightBirds | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | -21.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed NightBirds | 52c | 45.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked NightBirds | 39c | 42.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 1,134 | 31%352 W · 782 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked NightBirds | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 858 | 49.5%425 W · 433 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36de…cf07backed CITA Kaizen | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…a1bcbacked NightBirds | 40c | 37.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…476dbacked NightBirds | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 242 | 71.9%174 W · 68 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked CITA Kaizen | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 997 | 47.1%470 W · 527 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…698abacked CITA Kaizen | 57c | 26.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -13.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a69…8caabacked CITA Kaizen | 45c | 26.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked CITA Kaizen | 56c | 26.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 395 | 7.1%28 W · 367 L | -122.2wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked CITA Kaizen | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…f028backed CITA Kaizen | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85bc…1909backed CITA Kaizen | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…fa69backed CITA Kaizen | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed NightBirds | 64c | 24.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 282 | 46.5%131 W · 151 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed NightBirds | 62c | 23.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,057 | 46.1%487 W · 570 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed CITA Kaizen | 59c | 21.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,218 | 39.9%486 W · 732 L | -65.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed CITA Kaizen | 56c | 18.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -9.7wins | -0.42per pick | 55cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed NightBirds | 61c | 18.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…c9f4backed CITA Kaizen | 68c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 414 | 69.3%287 W · 127 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f8…1d2fbacked NightBirds | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular SeasonNightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen - Game 1 WinnerNightBirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.