Lol · resolved market
LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1db6ca3a1601c9de84a7a99833170fe2c150cfa4fb68129a92f6ee7bae97fbc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NightBirdsof NightBirds, CITA Kaizen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked CITA Kaizen | 16c | 1,550$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.66 | 549 | 34.8%191 W · 358 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed CITA Kaizen | 14c | 1,342$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.24 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…e497backed CITA Kaizen | 9c | 1,142$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed CITA Kaizen | 15c | 1,100$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…31a7backed CITA Kaizen | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed CITA Kaizen | 5c | 962.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked CITA Kaizen | 16c | 713.9$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 1,971 | 30.5%601 W · 1,370 L | -170.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed CITA Kaizen | 13c | 598.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 1,058 | 23.5%249 W · 809 L | -75.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa12b…610cbacked CITA Kaizen | 15c | 587.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…ac09backed CITA Kaizen | 33c | 587.48$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.82 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b51…cf1ebacked CITA Kaizen | 17c | 550$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…ae3dbacked CITA Kaizen | 16c | 502.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed NightBirds | 76c | 441.93$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 1,218 | 39.9%486 W · 732 L | -65.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9f…0c25backed CITA Kaizen | 14c | 400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed CITA Kaizen | 15c | 397.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed CITA Kaizen | 16c | 379.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 124 | 28.2%35 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…f2a3backed CITA Kaizen | 17c | 375.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…c3e0backed CITA Kaizen | 12c | 348$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…46f8backed CITA Kaizen | 27c | 313.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 273 | 40.7%111 W · 162 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…dd38backed NightBirds | 78c | 307.41$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 181 | 65.7%119 W · 62 L | +23.7wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed CITA Kaizen | 16c | 305.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 1,113 | 39%434 W · 679 L | -44.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…8897backed CITA Kaizen | 13c | 299.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed NightBirds | 78c | 232.67$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 358 | 50.8%182 W · 176 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…3679backed CITA Kaizen | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed CITA Kaizen | 20c | 205.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +45.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked CITA Kaizen | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,447 | 13.3%192 W · 1,255 L | -109.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked CITA Kaizen | 15c | 188$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b8…149bbacked CITA Kaizen | 16c | 185$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed CITA Kaizen | 19c | 176.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 978 | 54.4%532 W · 446 L | +48.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed CITA Kaizen | 17c | 162.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 239 | 38.1%91 W · 148 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d12ebacked CITA Kaizen | 18c | 161.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed CITA Kaizen | 14c | 155$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 169 | 33.1%56 W · 113 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadcd…29e9backed NightBirds | 78c | 128.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2888…f1a4backed CITA Kaizen | 19c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 539 | 32.5%175 W · 364 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed CITA Kaizen | 15c | 119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 462 | 48.9%226 W · 236 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed CITA Kaizen | 17c | 108.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,826 | 39.9%728 W · 1,098 L | -61.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c6…cd9cbacked CITA Kaizen | 19c | 106.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed CITA Kaizen | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 748 | 49.6%371 W · 377 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…7518backed CITA Kaizen | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4b…0113backed CITA Kaizen | 17c | 92.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +80%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed CITA Kaizen | 27c | 83.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 634 | 26%165 W · 469 L | -90.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -54%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed CITA Kaizen | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…6cb9backed NightBirds | 77c | 79.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked NightBirds | 80c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,311 | 39.4%910 W · 1,401 L | -83.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked CITA Kaizen | 21c | 75.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,357 | 31.2%423 W · 934 L | -129.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed NightBirds | 80c | 71.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 60cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked CITA Kaizen | 19c | 62.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bed…5cd6backed NightBirds | 72c | 62.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked CITA Kaizen | 23c | 61.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 117 | 35%41 W · 76 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…cba4backed CITA Kaizen | 17c | 61.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 535 | 45.2%242 W · 293 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked NightBirds | 79c | 53.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed CITA Kaizen | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 222 | 39.6%88 W · 134 L | -21.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed CITA Kaizen | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked CITA Kaizen | 27c | 48.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,679 | 35.7%957 W · 1,722 L | -153.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked CITA Kaizen | 24c | 47.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 580 | 43.3%251 W · 329 L | -47.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked CITA Kaizen | 26c | 41.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 187 | 38.5%72 W · 115 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc780…40a4backed NightBirds | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2d…b69dbacked NightBirds | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…a007backed NightBirds | 77c | 26.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed NightBirds | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3,131 | 33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L | -150.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed NightBirds | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 148 | 31.1%46 W · 102 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Seasonthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen - Game 1 WinnerNightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen - Game 2 WinnerNightBirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.