Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f0c40cfb0375e53135b5f8f960a3a5bce620cc1954a9ee4d90ae3cf677d253e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 5c | 309.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 24c | 258.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.47 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 50c | 201.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 186.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 170.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 13c | 149.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 141.35$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 71c | 133.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 71c | 131.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 35c | 131$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.15 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 13c | 116.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 115.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…3955backed No | 71c | 111.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 108.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 30c | 99.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 14c | 99.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 99.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 72c | 90.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 65.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 78c | 63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 28c | 58.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 28c | 52.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 52.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 63c | 50.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 60c | 48.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 69c | 47.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 51c | 45.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 67c | 44.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 43.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 34c | 37.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 38c | 35.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x780d…3e2dbacked No | 65c | 35.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 69c | 33.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 80c | 32.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 42c | 31.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 30.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa53…02a8backed Yes | 36c | 29.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 29.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 27.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed No | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 69c | 25.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 24.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 65c | 15.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e6…6a03backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.