MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f24b2f612fac04154063f3952d3bce7e89ff2461a73d04f1f59b376dfeaf92f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nationalsof Nationals, Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Reds | 57c | 12,000$6,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,840 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Reds | 66c | 11,578$7,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,593.55 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals | 43c | 9,468$4,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,402.43 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Reds | 9c | 2,477$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.54 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals | 35c | 2,343$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.55 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Reds | 50c | 1,297$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.92 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals | 35c | 1,282$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.73 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Reds | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Reds | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Reds | 62c | 999.99$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Reds | 64c | 999.99$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.99 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Nationals | 35c | 912.01$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.81 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Nationals | 41c | 906.97$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.97 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Reds | 64c | 777.34$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Nationals | 36c | 773.54$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.07 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Nationals | 38c | 657.89$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.89 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Nationals | 37c | 513.14$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.88 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Nationals | 57c | 483.73$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.49 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Reds | 6c | 417.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Nationals | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Nationals | 37c | 350$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Nationals | 45c | 348.47$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Reds | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Reds | 19c | 268.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Reds | 10c | 214.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Nationals | 37c | 181$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Reds | 62c | 180.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Nationals | 36c | 158.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.41 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 64c | 156.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Nationals | 42c | 151.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Reds | 63c | 133$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Reds | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Nationals | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Reds | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Reds | 64c | 89.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nationals | 34c | 83.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Reds | 63c | 69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds | 64c | 54.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Nationals | 37c | 51.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Nationals | 76c | 46.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Nationals | 38c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Nationals | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Nationals | 37c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…bb6bbacked Reds | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Nationals | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.