Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f2dea9513d5e5072c2a647bd76ffc009904cde09c017e93df1b55ae2c074174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb76b…d1f0backed Under | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 69c | 2,142$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.64 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 1c | 1,642$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 49c | 1,627$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.56 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…f598backed Under | 1c | 1,471$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 51c | 1,240$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.12 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 47c | 794.3$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.67 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 23c | 744.79$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.38 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 12c | 653.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 81 | 21%17 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 39c | 442.86$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.76 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed Over | 53c | 273.79$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e8…0153backed Over | 47c | 223.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 66c | 166.28$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 18c | 151.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 56c | 112$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa212…9161backed Over | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 67.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…888fbacked Over | 49c | 61.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 50.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 40c | 37.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 39c | 35.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed Under | 53c | 29.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 46c | 26.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed Over | 54c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5881…ca26backed Over | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: O/U 0.5this page
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: FC Red Bull Salzburg 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: FC Red Bull Salzburg O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: Páfos FC O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. Páfos FC: Páfos FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5)Páfos FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.