Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f32c2f12c2a4329d5cd68089402e27204f247988dbd7e0d460d916505eee55b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 78c | 1,223$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.66 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 73c | 492.62$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 16c | 276.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 27c | 267.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 50c | 241.94$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.71 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 211.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 38c | 169.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 143.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…22e5backed Yes | 28c | 132.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked Yes | 80c | 118$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 70c | 113.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 101.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 96.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 85.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 25c | 74.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 46c | 72.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 41c | 70.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 68.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 27c | 62.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 67c | 60.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 60.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…14d7backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…0971backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 57.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 53.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 60c | 50.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 69c | 49.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 48.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 48.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 34c | 44.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 64c | 42.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…70f0backed Yes | 75c | 41.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 67c | 41.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 31c | 40.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 69c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 33c | 37.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed Yes | 32c | 37.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 40c | 35.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked Yes | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…9544backed Yes | 56c | 32.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 69c | 30.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 36c | 28.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked Yes | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7849backed Yes | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 64c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…8aa6backed Yes | 78c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 48c | 25.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…37aabacked Yes | 78c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes | 43c | 25.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 61c | 22.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…62c5backed Yes | 63c | 22.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 17.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 17.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 74c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 15.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 70c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd9…2664backed Yes | 76c | 14.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 73c | 13.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.