Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca6cefa37a1e8deb0d2b8fda8e93fcacda0674d3b9ef876fdccf233fff1ba37e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 239.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 16c | 238.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 232.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 208.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 192.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 106.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 54c | 96.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 31c | 96.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 22c | 96.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 93.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 67.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 58.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 56.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 68c | 55.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 21c | 48.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fd…e118backed No | 67c | 42.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 31c | 40.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f0…7a4cbacked No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 39.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 39.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 35c | 39.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 62c | 38.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 34c | 37.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 37.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 36.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 62c | 36.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 47c | 29.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked No | 78c | 29.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 39c | 26.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 70c | 19.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 78c | 18.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 71c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.