MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f479728fecce91d745bf75685b795736551e5bbc01e49158efa0101260d4bd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Twins, Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3802…57d4backed Twins | 46c | 33,730$15,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,214.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…1facbacked Orioles | 54c | 31,860$17,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,204.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Orioles | 52c | 7,316$3,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,826.49 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Twins | 48c | 5,555$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,888.6 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc90…aec4backed Twins | 47c | 3,200$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 53c | 2,852$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.94 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524a…346fbacked Twins | 46c | 2,172$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Orioles | 55c | 1,960$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…029ebacked Twins | 48c | 1,900$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…bb94backed Orioles | 54c | 1,875$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…164ebacked Orioles | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0c32backed Orioles | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…4d99backed Twins | 46c | 1,488$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.52 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins | 45c | 1,375$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.16 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles | 53c | 1,164$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.15 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccf…12e0backed Orioles | 53c | 1,113$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76df…de4fbacked Orioles | 53c | 1,104$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Twins | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.94 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Orioles | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Orioles | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…8df2backed Orioles | 53c | 983$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…27c9backed Orioles | 54c | 549.76$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.36 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Orioles | 44c | 479.75$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.09 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Twins | 30c | 366.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.66 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Orioles | 62c | 364.6$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.8 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Twins | 45c | 313.45$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles | 8c | 290.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Twins | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Twins | 59c | 208.96$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 48c | 207.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Orioles | 8c | 201.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Twins | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Orioles | 52c | 193.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…e5febacked Twins | 35c | 185$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.35 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Twins | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Twins | 44c | 152.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Twins | 50c | 135$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Twins | 47c | 127.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Orioles | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Orioles | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Orioles | 53c | 107.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Orioles | 54c | 107.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Orioles | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…f78dbacked Orioles | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…5427backed Twins | 46c | 96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Orioles | 53c | 73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Twins | 45c | 64.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…e076backed Twins | 48c | 57.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Twins | 46c | 53.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Twins | 37c | 50.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7361…0050backed Orioles | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…7a70backed Orioles | 54c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Twins | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Orioles | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Twins | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ff…906cbacked Twins | 29c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Twins | 46c | 41.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Orioles | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe066…794abacked Orioles | 56c | 37.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Twins | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…9591backed Orioles | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Twins | 47c | 36.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Orioles | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…376fbacked Orioles | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacb…a28fbacked Twins | 45c | 35.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Twins | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Twins | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c23…f642backed Orioles | 52c | 31.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Orioles | 52c | 28.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Twins | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…0ddebacked Orioles | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.