Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f5f4a01771dfe1204a564f80c6ea4c99f03a4a96bf06d50d4cdb6a28cc780de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 73c | 2,209$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.64 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 6c | 1,472$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.41 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 41c | 965.6$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.92 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 862.75$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 46c | 797.94$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.83 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed No | 31c | 747.65$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.49 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 15c | 706.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 76c | 699.99$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 624.63$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 78c | 474.8$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 10c | 452.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 69c | 281.15$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 36c | 244.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 38c | 228.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 77c | 226.1$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.31 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 34c | 221.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 68c | 209.59$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 208.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 8c | 193.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 186.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 185.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 159.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 159.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 38c | 155.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3018…bae6backed No | 70c | 140.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 66c | 138.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5b…40cabacked Yes | 41c | 118.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 25c | 116$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 71c | 112.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 111.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 106.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 21c | 101$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…f2d4backed Yes | 51c | 100.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 41c | 99.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 43c | 97.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 31c | 97.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 39c | 94.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 40c | 81.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 60c | 78.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 36c | 78.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 63c | 76.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…93a3backed Yes | 69c | 71.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 71.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 66c | 67.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0b…7b92backed Yes | 43c | 59.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 24c | 58.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 38c | 55.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 71c | 52.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 49c | 52.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 51.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 39c | 49.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 37c | 47.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…070cbacked No | 34c | 46.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 33c | 43.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…ee90backed Yes | 49c | 38.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 72c | 38.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 75c | 35.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 65c | 35.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 79c | 35.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…1d5abacked Yes | 40c | 34.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 38c | 32.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 36c | 32.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 31.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…1609backed Yes | 34c | 31.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 38c | 30.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes | 35c | 30.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 70c | 28.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 64c | 26.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 40c | 25.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked Yes | 56c | 24.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e135backed No | 68c | 23.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 65c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 76c | 19.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc48…cfd8backed No | 60c | 16.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.