Tennis · resolved market
San Luis Potosi: Matias Soto vs Vladyslav Orlov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f6dd1ffd489f72cc02cff38180cd10164fa81637fb1d0507ee48e8fc2bbdabe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Matias Sotoof Matias Soto, Vladyslav Orlov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x713b…ee60backed Vladyslav Orlov | 6c | 2,085$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Vladyslav Orlov | 5c | 1,194$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vladyslav Orlov | 6c | 988.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Vladyslav Orlov | 23c | 537.49$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.18 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Vladyslav Orlov | 20c | 440.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…a351backed Matias Soto | 80c | 375.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 352 | 68.2%240 W · 112 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Vladyslav Orlov | 7c | 317.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 349 | 50.4%176 W · 173 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Vladyslav Orlov | 6c | 254.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84bd…34d0backed Vladyslav Orlov | 22c | 222.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed Matias Soto | 79c | 120.28$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 206 | 64.1%132 W · 74 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Vladyslav Orlov | 21c | 87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Vladyslav Orlov | 15c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Matias Soto | 78c | 83.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Matias Soto | 78c | 69.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfc…5a55backed Matias Soto | 78c | 58.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877c…e669backed Matias Soto | 78c | 54.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 229 | 63.3%145 W · 84 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Matias Soto | 78c | 50.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Vladyslav Orlov | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Matias Soto | 77c | 39.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a0…22a4backed Matias Soto | 50c | 36.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb086…f596backed Vladyslav Orlov | 50c | 35.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe030…eee4backed Matias Soto | 50c | 32.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957e…ed51backed Vladyslav Orlov | 50c | 31.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…bea7backed Matias Soto | 79c | 31.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 664 | 52.3%347 W · 317 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72d…33f4backed Matias Soto | 50c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…19f6backed Vladyslav Orlov | 50c | 30.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20f…2523backed Matias Soto | 50c | 25.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1116…d4afbacked Vladyslav Orlov | 50c | 25.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.