Europa Conference League · resolved market
HNK Hajduk Split vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f74546f3c19a1a22b088f0aeacf6552041d1bc8af87002c760ab0f67228d023
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e3…aaf2backed Over | 48c | 5,117$2,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,638.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 52c | 1,055$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.75 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 51c | 884$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.84 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 52c | 804.72$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.45 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 51c | 438$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.38 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 51c | 216$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 55c | 205$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 198.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 48c | 157.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 52c | 137$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 41c | 71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5f…048bbacked Over | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53c8…7f69backed Over | 46c | 53.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea6…eaaebacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f5…e2acbacked Under | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 76c | 32.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 52c | 29.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…c27ebacked Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Under | 49c | 25.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 23.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 21.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 2.5this page
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 0.5Over won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 1.5Over won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 3.5Over won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 4.5Under won
- HNK Hajduk Split vs. RKS Raków Częstochowa: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: HNK Hajduk Split (-1.5)RKS Raków Częstochowa won
- Spread: HNK Hajduk Split (-2.5)RKS Raków Częstochowa won
- Spread: RKS Raków Częstochowa (-1.5)HNK Hajduk Split won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.