Premier League · resolved market
Cardiff City FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f92822856917b9af609004da635fa0f88d9a43c63a2f77f8b93997ec9c9cd04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 10,388$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.65 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 62c | 6,749$4,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.73 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 4,585$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.49 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 19c | 3,840$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.33 | 1,044 | 33.3%348 W · 696 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 19c | 2,999$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.37 | 504 | 50%252 W · 252 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 1,887$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.08 | 1,244 | 49.4%615 W · 629 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 62c | 1,822$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.72 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1,240 | 42.2%523 W · 717 L | -29.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 38c | 883.5$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.73 | 1,690 | 34.9%589 W · 1,101 L | -33.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 19c | 864$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.48 | 593 | 32.9%195 W · 398 L | -30.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 7c | 820$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 724 | 42.7%309 W · 415 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 69c | 647.32$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.35 | 914 | 35.3%323 W · 591 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 38c | 614.05$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.34 | 182 | 38.5%70 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9895backed Under | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 8c | 162.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 38c | 135.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 29c | 94.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 598 | 47.7%285 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 38c | 60.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 337 | 51.3%173 W · 164 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 38c | 55.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5a…2afdbacked Over | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 64c | 50.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 39c | 47.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb994…d4b7backed Under | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…007abacked Under | 71c | 33.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…2d1cbacked Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardiff City FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Cardiff City FC vs. Norwich City FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Norwich City FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Norwich City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Norwich City FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Norwich City FC: Cardiff City FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Norwich City FC: Cardiff City FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cardiff City FC (-1.5)Norwich City FC won
- Spread: Cardiff City FC (-2.5)Norwich City FC won
- Spread: Norwich City FC (-1.5)Cardiff City FC won
- Spread: Norwich City FC (-2.5)Cardiff City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.