Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Kotov vs Holmgren
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ff03a9a6161081f5fe1486571d426944cce838453b6facdb7d97bcbc5897e3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kotovof Kotov, Holmgren
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Kotov | 66c | 1,484$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.64 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Holmgren | 34c | 1,177$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.48 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…ee5abacked Kotov | 68c | 506.48$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.84 | 148 | 22.3%33 W · 115 L | -14.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Holmgren | 35c | 392.09$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Holmgren | 34c | 317.15$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.83 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Holmgren | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Kotov | 65c | 225.92$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.07 | 244 | 63.5%155 W · 89 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517f…7811backed Kotov | 66c | 178.11$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…7c64backed Holmgren | 47c | 165.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Holmgren | 34c | 148$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Holmgren | 20c | 135.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…a62ebacked Kotov | 61c | 114.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Holmgren | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…7f50backed Kotov | 64c | 61.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kotov | 61c | 58.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…ca10backed Holmgren | 34c | 41.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked Holmgren | 31c | 35.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…b86cbacked Holmgren | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Kotov | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Holmgren | 40c | 28.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed Kotov | 62c | 28.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 313 | 58.5%183 W · 130 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Kotov | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 227 | 55.1%125 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Kotov | 74c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kotov | 76c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Kotov | 80c | 17.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Kotov | 80c | 17.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Kotov vs Holmgrenthis page
- Kotov vs. Holmgren: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Kotov vs. Holmgren: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Pavel Kotov vs. August Holmgren: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Wuning: Pavel Kotov vs August HolmgrenPavel Kotov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.