Tennis · resolved market
Swiss Indoors Basel: Casper Ruud vs Stan Wawrinka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x801a0e24bbe66e4f6e21cfd193b0ea2632250fe99e7a50de51a32c60d28e388b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Ruud, Wawrinka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Wawrinka | 19c | 25,000$4,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,750 | 374 | 50%187 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5836…27bdbacked Wawrinka | 20c | 6,000$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wawrinka | 13c | 5,583$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.54 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Wawrinka | 28c | 4,733$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.73 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wawrinka | 11c | 2,129$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.58 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Ruud | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Wawrinka | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f6…fd5abacked Wawrinka | 19c | 1,489$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Wawrinka | 21c | 1,487$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Wawrinka | 19c | 1,334$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.88 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Wawrinka | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Wawrinka | 20c | 999.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd34…140dbacked Wawrinka | 24c | 796.96$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Ruud | 70c | 717.92$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.92 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Wawrinka | 19c | 580.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…0dd6backed Wawrinka | 5c | 579.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Wawrinka | 19c | 578.03$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8e…a742backed Ruud | 80c | 510$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Wawrinka | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Wawrinka | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Wawrinka | 19c | 490.3$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Wawrinka | 11c | 477.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked Wawrinka | 8c | 360.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Wawrinka | 10c | 350.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…b52cbacked Wawrinka | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Wawrinka | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Wawrinka | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…45d7backed Wawrinka | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Wawrinka | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Wawrinka | 19c | 221.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Wawrinka | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Wawrinka | 16c | 193.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wawrinka | 16c | 168.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wawrinka | 17c | 152.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Ruud | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Wawrinka | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Ruud | 70c | 139.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Wawrinka | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…f4acbacked Wawrinka | 15c | 106.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Ruud | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Ruud | 79c | 62.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d6…d617backed Wawrinka | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wawrinka | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Wawrinka | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Ruud | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…d3bebacked Wawrinka | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde2d…abbabacked Ruud | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.