Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x805ce0cee55490c37d1bdae1cd291ffe9c32e036b4bbb9a8db49b53663b4c3bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,762 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 31c | 3,600$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.31 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 2,114$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.55 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 29c | 1,731$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,633$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.67 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 69c | 1,006$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.38 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 904.92$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.98 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 23c | 704.05$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.93 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes | 27c | 550.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 21c | 529.74$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.17 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 71c | 378.03$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.63 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…d445backed Yes | 28c | 330$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 72c | 250.77$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…310abacked No | 73c | 231.08$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 23c | 230$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…e260backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6040…33a9backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 28c | 194$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Yes | 28c | 92.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 17c | 72.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 22c | 60.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 54.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ad…9636backed Yes | 20c | 50.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…e1babacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 73c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…e451backed No | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will KKS Lech Poznań vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-12?Yes won
- Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-03-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.