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World Politics · resolved market

Will Democrat Party (DP) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$514,966
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,352

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $514,966 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfc63…561abacked Yes0c41,730$42 inLost-$41.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56dc…10f1backed Yes0c39,810$40 inLost-$39.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd382…77babacked Yes0c39,735$40 inLost-$39.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x800b…1a1fbacked Yes0c39,560$40 inLost-$39.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c07…dc98backed Yes0c37,835$38 inLost-$37.8430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…4dd5backed Yes0c22,188$22 inLost-$22.1940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb419…1228backed Yes0c21,040$21 inLost-$21.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x973b…d4a6backed Yes0c20,210$20 inLost-$20.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3590…3ccfbacked Yes0c18,597$19 inLost-$18.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b26…a4adbacked Yes0c18,597$19 inLost-$18.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…3f78backed Yes0c18,535$19 inLost-$18.5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7922…52babacked Yes0c17,890$18 inLost-$17.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bdd…ca37backed Yes0c15,700$16 inLost-$15.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbff…1681backed Yes0c14,946$15 inLost-$14.9540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf04…dce0backed Yes0c14,400$14 inLost-$14.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bcf…4272backed Yes0c13,607$14 inLost-$13.6150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c10,377$11 inLost-$11.05550%0 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes11c121.25$14 inLost-$13.5399417.2%171 W · 823 L-149.6wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.