South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús vs. CA Newell's Old Boys end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80752aa36346aa841f09ef7541e39fbc6c5d34f166fee9f18af91ee130325bbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 28c | 5,997$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.2 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 2,718$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 2,547$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.93 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 725.81$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.56 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 11c | 303.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 72c | 252$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 14c | 181.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 72c | 175$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 72c | 175$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 153.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 148.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…4d4abacked Yes | 9c | 138.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 71c | 118.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 26c | 114$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2d…8668backed Yes | 29c | 106.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 72c | 97.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 72c | 93.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…e187backed Yes | 16c | 90.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 72c | 90.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 89.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 72c | 73.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed No | 72c | 68.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 29c | 59.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 78c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 72c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed No | 72c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús vs. CA Newell's Old Boys end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-03-17?Yes won
- Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2026-03-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.