WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8076041f2b3e059291453b949f014e750d8db0ad81d41239f52b055ce552da52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Sparksof Phoenix Mercury, Los Angeles Sparks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Phoenix Mercury | 38c | 4,362$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.7 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Sparks | 62c | 2,258$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.97 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Sparks | 63c | 1,511$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.87 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 62c | 1,151$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.71 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 533.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eab…7e13backed Los Angeles Sparks | 56c | 401.54$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.85 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Los Angeles Sparks | 38c | 375$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 39c | 367$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.19 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 338.66$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 61c | 293.89$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.62 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 293.38$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 255.68$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 39c | 254.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.81 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Sparks | 43c | 228.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…5463backed Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 228.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Los Angeles Sparks | 38c | 225$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 38c | 224.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Los Angeles Sparks | 65c | 213.97$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Los Angeles Sparks | 68c | 183.63$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 168.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Los Angeles Sparks | 59c | 167.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury | 39c | 150.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 43c | 138.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Phoenix Mercury | 39c | 122.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Los Angeles Sparks | 56c | 103.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Los Angeles Sparks | 61c | 103$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Phoenix Mercury | 34c | 90.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Los Angeles Sparks | 58c | 85.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 77.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 62c | 68.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 35c | 67.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Phoenix Mercury | 65c | 57.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b18…b947backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 50.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Los Angeles Sparks | 58c | 47.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 42.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Los Angeles Sparks | 41c | 38.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 48c | 34.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Los Angeles Sparks | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Los Angeles Sparks | 64c | 28.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 27.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 25.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Los Angeles Sparks | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Los Angeles Sparks | 64c | 21.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc0…af22backed Los Angeles Sparks | 63c | 18.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix MercuryLos Angeles Sparks won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.