Serie A · resolved market
Pisa SC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x808579f42df59aceb259d866da1992cf00e515c2de914979f7a94855f4b049d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 1,542$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.16 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 1,421$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Over | 26c | 576.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 7c | 365.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 5c | 272.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 25c | 243.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 27c | 241.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 25c | 200.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Over | 9c | 190.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 25c | 177$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 77c | 122.32$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 148 | 45.3%67 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e8…9a6fbacked Under | 74c | 94.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 75c | 94.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Over | 27c | 90.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 23c | 87.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 26c | 78.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 76c | 76.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 21c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…22d6backed Over | 24c | 63.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 79c | 60.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 25c | 49.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 75c | 49.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 25c | 41.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 75c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…e52ebacked Under | 79c | 16.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pisa SC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5this page
- Pisa SC vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Pisa SC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.