Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Mboko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x809cd55edf718390f7f547ceda9b1857dc493b409b47dc900d7bcd298840e580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Mboko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,198 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Mboko | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 897.81$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.32 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Sabalenka | 72c | 529.16$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…e1adbacked Mboko | 35c | 481.78$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.9 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…9bbcbacked Mboko | 37c | 455.4$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Sabalenka | 68c | 294.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Mboko | 32c | 190.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…73e7backed Mboko | 35c | 143.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Sabalenka | 74c | 135.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sabalenka | 64c | 125.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sabalenka | 78c | 115.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sabalenka | 69c | 87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Mboko | 28c | 84.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…6323backed Sabalenka | 72c | 84.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 102 | 67.6%69 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1855…32bcbacked Sabalenka | 68c | 83.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Sabalenka | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8770…8aabbacked Sabalenka | 74c | 74.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Sabalenka | 72c | 69.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 849 | 63.1%536 W · 313 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640a…14fabacked Mboko | 41c | 66.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mboko | 28c | 61.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Mboko | 35c | 55.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Sabalenka | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 273 | 46.5%127 W · 146 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Mboko | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mboko | 28c | 48.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Mboko | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Sabalenka | 58c | 29.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -10.4wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sabalenka | 72c | 28.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Mbokothis page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Victoria Mboko: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria MbokoAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Mboko: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Mboko: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Mboko: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Mboko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Mboko (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.