Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Mboko (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa49466a03e6059bc0cb433797ee8096dfa405b07cc702d869ecc28a4028d262a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Mboko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,509 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked Sabalenka | 55c | 5,896$3,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,653.41 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…5266backed Sabalenka | 51c | 4,118$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…f99ebacked Mboko | 49c | 3,567$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mboko | 33c | 2,591$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.49 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…8f4ebacked Mboko | 49c | 2,571$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…ead2backed Sabalenka | 56c | 2,512$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.94 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Mboko | 45c | 2,261$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.46 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed Sabalenka | 62c | 2,250$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.98 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…7961backed Sabalenka | 51c | 2,020$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mboko | 44c | 1,437$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.49 | 4,070 | 39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L | +92.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Sabalenka | 58c | 1,210$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.47 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Mboko | 49c | 1,024$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Mboko | 45c | 1,000$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.23 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Mboko | 48c | 980.8$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467 | 1,110 | 43%477 W · 633 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mboko | 44c | 902.97$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.18 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Mboko | 45c | 703.38$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.57 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c97…4d17backed Mboko | 45c | 556.62$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.48 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Sabalenka | 70c | 498.47$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.48 | 430 | 62.3%268 W · 162 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…650dbacked Mboko | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733f…3d6fbacked Mboko | 51c | 395.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…d211backed Sabalenka | 55c | 362$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.9 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Sabalenka | 53c | 296.67$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mboko | 38c | 274.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Sabalenka | 55c | 273.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.38 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Mboko | 37c | 272.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Sabalenka | 55c | 271.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Mboko | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…b778backed Sabalenka | 55c | 218.95$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.95 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Mboko | 38c | 210.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998c…6f97backed Mboko | 50c | 200.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Mboko | 45c | 182$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Mboko | 62c | 160.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Mboko | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 119 | 61.3%73 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…aa8dbacked Sabalenka | 54c | 141.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…041abacked Mboko | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked Sabalenka | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Sabalenka | 52c | 84.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…636cbacked Mboko | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Sabalenka | 42c | 56.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 1,377 | 16.3%224 W · 1,153 L | -109.7wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Sabalenka | 52c | 54.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Mboko | 45c | 50.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Mboko | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Mboko | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f07…8626backed Sabalenka | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked Mboko | 38c | 40.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -9.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa41f…6100backed Sabalenka | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 112 | 34.8%39 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Mboko | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Sabalenka | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Mboko | 46c | 35.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…17b1backed Mboko | 38c | 35.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Mboko | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8770…8aabbacked Sabalenka | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe448…a4b0backed Mboko | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…8d76backed Mboko | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Sabalenka | 51c | 25.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277c…e529backed Mboko | 45c | 24.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sabalenka | 51c | 21.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Sabalenka | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 894 | 35.9%321 W · 573 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Mboko (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Victoria Mboko: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria MbokoAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Mboko: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Mboko: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Mboko: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Sabalenka vs. Mboko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs MbokoSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.