Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80a8a60c1b262657313f3e6317787c43a8fec1161483a957afbbe7ef452698a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof Inner Circle, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d5…8a03backed Inner Circle | 13c | 3,800$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Inner Circle | 15c | 2,500$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Inner Circle | 1c | 2,326$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Inner Circle | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Inner Circle | 6c | 1,789$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Inner Circle | 11c | 1,377$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Inner Circle | 4c | 1,225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked 1win | 79c | 675.68$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Inner Circle | 15c | 663.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Inner Circle | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked 1win | 77c | 440.87$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Inner Circle | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 319 | 36.7%117 W · 202 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Inner Circle | 18c | 420.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…0747backed Inner Circle | 21c | 406.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed 1win | 80c | 391.25$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c3bfbacked 1win | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…bbc5backed Inner Circle | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 537 | 64.4%346 W · 191 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Inner Circle | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Inner Circle | 12c | 284.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Inner Circle | 4c | 275$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked 1win | 79c | 263.36$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…bcb5backed Inner Circle | 16c | 242.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…f432backed Inner Circle | 21c | 214.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Inner Circle | 9c | 175.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Inner Circle | 15c | 167.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…bad1backed Inner Circle | 18c | 156.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 80c | 152.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…87f6backed 1win | 78c | 144.66$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Inner Circle | 22c | 113.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked 1win | 79c | 110.68$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Inner Circle | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…763ebacked Inner Circle | 10c | 100.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed Inner Circle | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Inner Circle | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Inner Circle | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed 1win | 80c | 76.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Inner Circle | 20c | 74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed 1win | 80c | 53.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed 1win | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed 1win | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked 1win | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed 1win | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked 1win | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked 1win | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…d881backed 1win | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs 1win (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D1win won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs 1win - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.