Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs 1win (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9436ec45e2a4548deb232dc7eaaf2a54d6b8e8a8c0bbf728c42ce494ffd8d9d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof Inner Circle, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Inner Circle | 25c | 1,963$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.39 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed 1win | 79c | 963.34$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.81 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked 1win | 79c | 939.63$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.88 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Inner Circle | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed 1win | 72c | 569.02$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.4 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Inner Circle | 22c | 505.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed 1win | 77c | 451.07$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Inner Circle | 18c | 450.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Inner Circle | 24c | 304.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…b8fbbacked 1win | 79c | 231$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…f39fbacked Inner Circle | 15c | 229.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…38cfbacked Inner Circle | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 370 | 18.9%70 W · 300 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Inner Circle | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed 1win | 79c | 145.77$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed 1win | 78c | 127.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 1win | 77c | 124.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Inner Circle | 17c | 108.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf461…9ef2backed Inner Circle | 36c | 84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Inner Circle | 16c | 83.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed 1win | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x225e…ac2dbacked 1win | 76c | 64.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…9884backed Inner Circle | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xece3…19ddbacked 1win | 78c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked 1win | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…2516backed 1win | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked 1win | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…5696backed 1win | 68c | 19.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked 1win | 67c | 17.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…5552backed 1win | 77c | 16.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs 1win (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Dthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs 1win - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs 1win - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.