Other European Leagues · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80e98d02cd8fc886e9ebe4cdb1b848279261e5a48215c2d41ce997504317ff61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.92 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 1,381$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.46 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abc…9ff7backed Over | 71c | 425.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 75c | 246.73$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 16c | 199.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Under | 18c | 199.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe7…6ab1backed Under | 25c | 126.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 67c | 96.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 80c | 92.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 27c | 85.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 74c | 83.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 62c | 59.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 73c | 27.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 178 | 50.6%90 W · 88 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.