Other European Leagues · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a0b563873e5cfe232b6f47c21b30172dbcd2e299ace3ad4084d8f1ef18a2e9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 3,747$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.22 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 47c | 2,281$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.65 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 75c | 1,310$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.8 | 205 | 72.2%148 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…7d32backed Over | 46c | 1,096$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.87 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 41c | 906$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.68 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 533$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.36 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 300.85$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.45 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Over | 62c | 173$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 25c | 135$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Over | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 37c | 114.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 46c | 108.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…ba8ebacked Over | 64c | 103.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 62c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 75c | 79.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 60.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…6deebacked Under | 69c | 59.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f8…58f7backed Over | 51c | 58.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 42c | 52.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe7…6ab1backed Under | 55c | 50.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 50c | 50.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 318 | 60.4%192 W · 126 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Under | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Under | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Under | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…2838backed Over | 63c | 39.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Under | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Under | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Under | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Under | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Under | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.