Other European Leagues · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e1186d6d770aba83562167c06aa5496427969b7d82f95f2c5f9f501ed51faf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 2,368$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.76 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 37c | 2,116$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.98 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…d7e7backed Under | 1c | 1,401$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under | 1c | 1,323$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,170$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.07 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Under | 28c | 686$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.48 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 502.7$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.21 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 72c | 430$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 205 | 72.2%148 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 56c | 267.95$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.95 | 88 | 73.9%65 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 240 | 30.4%73 W · 167 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 64c | 156.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 61c | 135$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 61c | 111$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 61c | 91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 52c | 57.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…ae76backed Under | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 55.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…3848backed Under | 64c | 54.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 318 | 60.4%192 W · 126 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Over | 39c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Over | 39c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 53c | 38.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 37c | 36.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Over | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Over | 39c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 52c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed Over | 55c | 23.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 60c | 23.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 61c | 22.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 50c | 21.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Over | 54c | 18.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…5857backed Over | 70c | 17.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.