College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8101e49269d073bd7745879e4fdde1d1429e8c6f3b6b40fb9aa896aace037ca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Stateof Texas Tech Red Raiders, Arizona State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 49c | 50,769$24,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,943.38 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Arizona State | 52c | 28,000$14,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,440 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 19,919$9,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,560.89 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona State | 50c | 14,502$7,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,258.21 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Arizona State | 52c | 8,555$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,075.7 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Arizona State | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 50c | 4,003$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.35 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed Arizona State | 52c | 3,071$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Arizona State | 52c | 3,068$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.21 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Arizona State | 53c | 2,831$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.63 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Arizona State | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Arizona State | 52c | 1,925$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Arizona State | 51c | 962$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.38 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Arizona State | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Arizona State | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed83…a91fbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 445.28$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3405…16d3backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 429.11$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Arizona State | 60c | 262$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Arizona State | 53c | 245.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Arizona State | 63c | 220$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Arizona State | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Arizona State | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arizona State | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf068…6184backed Arizona State | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b5…8763backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Arizona State | 52c | 62.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…534cbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 41.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Arizona State | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Arizona State | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4eda…acf6backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Arizona State | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Arizona State | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5)this page
- O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-11.5)Arizona State won
- Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-9.5)Arizona State won
- Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona StateArizona State won
- Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State: O/U 49.5Under won
- Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State: O/U 50.5Under won
- Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State: O/U 51.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.