Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or higher on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x811716fd38987d44007366263d2d1d23cc406c1baba76da64ac069d749b2e231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,546$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 2c | 2,991$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed No | 9c | 1,425$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…3d3ebacked No | 18c | 592.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 8c | 484.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…fe5fbacked No | 4c | 442.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 9c | 430.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 8c | 376.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked No | 16c | 333.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 79c | 294.81$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 7c | 245.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 17c | 242.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 228.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…434fbacked No | 16c | 195.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…2635backed No | 14c | 174.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa580…b99abacked No | 8c | 131.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 13c | 129.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 15c | 129.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 75c | 102.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 61c | 67.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 58c | 47.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bff…bb6fbacked Yes | 79c | 39.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 72c | 38.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 79c | 16.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 75c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or higher on February 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 15°F or below on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.