Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x814450574966786a13e9474ae2b497cb0769934ec78f58ec945b3cbc7a1c63d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 1c | 10,413$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 964.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 25c | 489.74$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 7c | 305.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 14c | 305.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 286.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 285.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 264.54$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 49c | 223.17$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 11c | 149.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 8c | 142.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 124.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 74c | 113.35$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 20c | 101.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 99.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 14c | 96.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 25c | 94.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 28c | 76.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 32c | 65.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 32c | 61.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 80c | 50.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 49.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 22c | 48.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 45.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…4a32backed No | 79c | 44.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 43.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 75c | 42.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 39.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 39.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 37.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 55c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 34.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 33.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 57c | 30.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 77c | 25.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 46c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 58c | 23.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 20.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 20.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.