Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb07f9c66f5e8794efc20b80e8a88e631d84bca26af4b79ee0d3af7245f296f03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 4c | 766.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 74c | 711.38$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.53 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 505.1$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 413.18$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 250.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.74 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 37c | 249.92$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 240.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 236.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.56 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 197.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 196.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 196.01$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 38c | 194.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 37c | 173.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.26 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 156$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 154.85$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 66c | 149.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 141.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 37c | 139.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 51c | 138.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 126.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 116.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 56c | 111.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 32c | 107.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 106.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 39c | 101.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 68cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 34c | 96.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 89.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 84.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 84.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 78.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 45c | 77.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 77c | 73.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 68c | 72.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 61c | 72.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 71.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 61c | 69.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 51c | 68.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 68.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 67.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 44c | 66.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 59c | 65.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 64.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 62.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 60.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 21c | 57.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 37c | 57.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 43c | 56.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 55.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 48c | 54.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 48c | 53.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 53.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…4a32backed No | 43c | 51.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 47.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 47.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 69c | 47.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 46.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…733ebacked Yes | 63c | 46.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 50c | 44.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 43.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 41.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 37c | 40.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 37c | 40.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 65c | 39.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 65c | 38.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 37.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 37.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 77c | 36.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 35c | 35.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 34.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 49c | 33.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 33c | 32.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 61c | 31.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 31.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…c6c3backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 35c | 29.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 28.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 27.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…791ebacked No | 64c | 26.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed No | 78c | 26.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 59c | 26.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 60c | 25.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 25.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.