Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf5907b4599d99e2413f7fc4fe293b70863f184f5114813f3592846a250a5ee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 1,436$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 41c | 811.83$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.41 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 505.1$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 455.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 428.82$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 392.36$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.57 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 336.36$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 43c | 332.15$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.11 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed Yes | 9c | 267.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 6c | 261.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 256.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 245.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 237.36$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 213.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 202.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 19c | 200.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 194.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 48c | 188.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 185.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 181.82$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 38c | 180.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 152$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 21c | 139.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 129.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 126.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 123.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 78c | 120.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 23c | 108.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 107.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 103.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 53c | 98.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 50c | 98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 22c | 89.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 84.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 13c | 82.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 81.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 50c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 78.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 74.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 18c | 72.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 55c | 72.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 24c | 71.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 22c | 69.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 65.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 64.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…4a32backed No | 75c | 63.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 33c | 59.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 58c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 52c | 55.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 75c | 54.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 35c | 54.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 23c | 52.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 47.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 47.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 46.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 45.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 44.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 43.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 50c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 38.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 75c | 36.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 58c | 33.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 32.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 59c | 32.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…733ebacked No | 62c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 31.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 49c | 31.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 48c | 30.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…8193backed No | 58c | 28.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 28.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 26.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 25.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 54c | 25.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 24.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 63c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 55c | 23.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 44c | 22.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 54c | 22.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 54c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 57c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 75c | 18.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.