Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x815835f4374a4c1a2fc58052e731ec25f0272876dd042a23fcb76b69356c2e0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d46…f816backed Yes | 1c | 1,501$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 444.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 278.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 264.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 226.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 224.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 206.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 17c | 114.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 95.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 93.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 92.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 86.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 74.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 71.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 74c | 67.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 66.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…0a9abacked Yes | 23c | 62.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 60.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 33c | 60.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 72c | 58.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…160bbacked No | 74c | 53.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 74c | 51.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 44.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 69c | 43.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 71c | 42.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9eb…c7b3backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 37.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598c…13b3backed Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 29cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 36.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…020fbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 34.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 31c | 34.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 31.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 73c | 29.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 27.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 70c | 25.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 70c | 25.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 70c | 16.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 16.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008e…f878backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d0…fad2backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.