TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,735 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x10ab…b2e8backed No0c10,198$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.27040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b76…6984backed No1c5,138$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked No2c4,989$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10051733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f15…4cd2backed No2c4,878$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.56475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x100a…c6cebacked No2c4,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a23…fd22backed No1c3,714$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.149530.5%29 W · 66 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes67c2,546$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.1731043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No1c2,239$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.227313.7%10 W · 63 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d0…1845backed No2c2,040$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.382161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No2c1,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.727841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed No4c1,100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.214119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No7c822.44$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x884a…aa34backed No2c700$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef0…25b2backed No2c633.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed No10c593.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606045%27 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31c0…20adbacked No2c444.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No4c433.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.814,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c328.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.781,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No5c287.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0788650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes40c238.21$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.51,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No24c219.39$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.346,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…3a35backed No14c216.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes43c203.61$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5473927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…65d5backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9049646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c193.48$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.5417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed No57c172.39$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7714659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No7c167.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.291,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No26c165$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked No12c145.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.313134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes69c144.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.355,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No58c143.43$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.192,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No14c136.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7931219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No55c129.27$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.71,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes80c127.82$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1635362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No9c122$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.375,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes69c116.42$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No11c113$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.548919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No62c108.73$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes76c100.94$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.947949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No54c96.39$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.081,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x873a…160bbacked No73c88.53$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.23650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No25c83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.831,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes48c82.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5629835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No48c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No39c64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.941,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No21c62.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No40c57.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6331050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No61c57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.683,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No27c55.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes50c55.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.572,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No67c54.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6611965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No45c52.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.827251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ff7…dbfabacked No74c51.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4610081%81 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes31c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7134934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes34c48.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8646240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No52c45.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.841,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x598c…13b3backed Yes29c41.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.591163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.35per pick29cpaid+154.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf9eb…c7b3backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.11944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes75c39.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8131943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No51c38.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7414745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3a2…2c18backed No68c38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.846663.6%42 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes53c36.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.323435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No56c36.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0611164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No59c33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4771464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No69c32.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.612,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No63c30.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.479361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.967336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10f4…c2eabacked No56c28.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.995149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No73c27.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6228270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes43c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2566758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c24.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.981,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe985…8cc8backed No51c24.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.58325.3%21 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No56c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.441,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d46…f816backed No55c23.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.245851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No70c23.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.241,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked No60c22.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.882742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x147e…eb1ebacked No55c22.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No68c22.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No52c20.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.821,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7579255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47cf…5732backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156160.7%37 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No74c19.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.512,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed No77c19.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9520266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No67c19.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8182562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c18.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.