Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8166cae4e2dbe7a12c47404e933862bf990baada3286edcc600e055c29d0de65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 2,451$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.57 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 80c | 470.92$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 456.59$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.65 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 30c | 319.75$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.83 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 291 | 58.4%170 W · 121 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 32c | 206$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed No | 42c | 175$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 17c | 161.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.26 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 69c | 129.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 31c | 129$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 356 | 61.2%218 W · 138 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Yes | 37c | 101$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 227 | 64.8%147 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 15c | 76.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed No | 63c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…cc69backed Yes | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb2…e33fbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 57cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed No | 47c | 24.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 19.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Derby County FC win on 2025-12-10?No won
- Will Millwall FC win on 2025-12-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.