Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-12-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3bee0ae699b4834fae1fdad2bb2905ee4dd6714565d0d80eedb1c208c91aa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 74c | 2,950$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.63 | 111 | 62.2%69 W · 42 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…90a7backed Yes | 25c | 1,936$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 24c | 1,503$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.44 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 1,366$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.9 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 1,282$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.3 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 64c | 566.56$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.81 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 77c | 408.16$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 219 | 65.3%143 W · 76 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked Yes | 35c | 305.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…4fdfbacked Yes | 26c | 225$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 25c | 213.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 274 | 54%148 W · 126 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 22c | 185.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 35c | 170.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 262 | 29.8%78 W · 184 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 7c | 165.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 186 | 46.8%87 W · 99 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 69c | 147.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 36c | 137.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 39c | 106$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 35c | 101.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 71.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 73c | 70.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 364 | 62.9%229 W · 135 L | +32.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 35c | 63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Yes | 31c | 61.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 401 | 57.6%231 W · 170 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 36c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 40c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 36c | 27.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2025-12-10?this page
- Will Derby County FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Millwall FC win on 2025-12-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.