Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81c5db69eef4eae8417141bec56c6e10a00661ec991214848db7fcf4d77bc3d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e75…4e58backed Yes | 53c | 19,500$10,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,165 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261f…2fa4backed No | 47c | 19,500$9,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,165.35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x690b…9145backed Yes | 55c | 13,500$7,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,075 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…dec2backed No | 45c | 13,491$6,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,071.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 71c | 273.6$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.11 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked No | 20c | 272.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 40c | 175.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 137.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 122.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 75c | 105$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 30c | 94.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 47c | 84.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…551fbacked No | 40c | 82.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 42c | 74.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…91cbbacked Yes | 49c | 71.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 67.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 59c | 65.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 72c | 49.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 48.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 45.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…cf0bbacked No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked No | 66c | 37.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 35.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 58c | 31.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 31.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea9…3a27backed No | 68c | 30.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…958bbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 66c | 29.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 42c | 29.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 27.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe643…4539backed No | 70c | 20.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 76c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…51fabacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 73c | 19.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 16.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 73c | 16.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 63c | 15.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.