Earnings · resolved market
Will Humana (HUM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81cc33c1987b14eec3a9a00542ff0960cb53bc011cdb4c08a9159bdc1b198444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 54c | 936.23$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.44 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 41c | 526.02$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.24 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 76c | 362.43$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a48…e094backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 63c | 243.95$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 173$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 165$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2b…d9c7backed No | 22c | 146.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…7f2dbacked Yes | 74c | 131.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 78c | 126.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…e69bbacked No | 26c | 78.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8118…9850backed No | 26c | 72.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…f545backed Yes | 54c | 52.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed No | 47c | 51.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x049c…a244backed Yes | 78c | 24.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…c61fbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…d823backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.