Tennis · resolved market
US Open Final: Sinner vs. Fritz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81dafa3fc3cbafea596f5fd223794d90907887b72995ebcaf038e6d0a61dcb2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Frtiz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Frtiz | 1c | 11,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Frtiz | 2c | 10,256$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.82 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Frtiz | 3c | 10,156$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.01 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6c…dd99backed Frtiz | 25c | 4,516$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Sinner | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.73 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe484…7c7abacked Frtiz | 20c | 2,346$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002e…ab83backed Sinner | 76c | 1,853$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.64 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c15fbacked Frtiz | 21c | 1,265$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Sinner | 79c | 1,048$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Sinner | 78c | 1,004$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.78 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Frtiz | 8c | 879.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd4…50fabacked Frtiz | 11c | 856.87$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked Frtiz | 9c | 670.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Frtiz | 71c | 618.38$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Frtiz | 22c | 514.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.09 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Sinner | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…ba70backed Frtiz | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Sinner | 80c | 417.29$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…c107backed Sinner | 79c | 380$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Frtiz | 21c | 380$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +29%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Frtiz | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Frtiz | 4c | 277.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…3d11backed Sinner | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Sinner | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedf…966abacked Frtiz | 22c | 198.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed Sinner | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Frtiz | 10c | 172.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…4d95backed Frtiz | 18c | 158.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Sinner | 79c | 155$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Frtiz | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…a3efbacked Sinner | 76c | 107$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba08…1ff1backed Frtiz | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…9505backed Sinner | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…fbe9backed Frtiz | 19c | 60.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…2093backed Frtiz | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Sinner | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x636b…1c55backed Sinner | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…6678backed Sinner | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…32e4backed Sinner | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.