Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81f089e4d2b5376efdb68d95d8ac9d36f7e8d21ee7d14ec0824e61c88e27bbd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 11c | 1,160$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 458.07$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed No | 5c | 316.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 230$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 5c | 212.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 25c | 201.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 163.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…bd0fbacked Yes | 40c | 151.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 31c | 143.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 47c | 131.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 19c | 98.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 75.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 40c | 74.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 35c | 74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 67.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 22c | 65.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 36c | 64.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 53.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 52.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 50.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 54c | 48.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 71c | 42.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 38.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 33c | 38.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 59c | 36.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd5…17cbbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 58c | 33.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 30.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 43c | 26.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 49c | 25.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 23.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 69c | 21.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 19.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.