Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8213631ef5fe457170d06082b1ee6d6737d600049bd9dde10ced743ac9923f52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 14c | 10,298$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.37 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 9,592$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.94 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 70c | 2,454$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.4 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 80c | 2,439$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.33 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked No | 1c | 2,227$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,666$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.04 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 15c | 1,666$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.04 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 44c | 1,192$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.17 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 127 | 70.9%90 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 15c | 992$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.95 | 112 | 35.7%40 W · 72 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 66c | 793$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.24 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 13c | 762$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.2 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 15c | 566$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.1 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4772…cc49backed Yes | 30c | 539.47$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 14c | 535.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.81 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked No | 2c | 508.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 60c | 484.65$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.09 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed Yes | 15c | 435$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +88%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f3…cf28backed No | 13c | 374.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…1366backed No | 69c | 319.78$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…2afcbacked No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 14c | 251.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.89 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e6…5501backed Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked No | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 12c | 190.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.54 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 38c | 154$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 12c | 100.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…9b78backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…984dbacked Yes | 79c | 87.86$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e9…41f3backed Yes | 64c | 87.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…db33backed Yes | 65c | 73.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc1…0f58backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 64cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…a4dcbacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Panathinaikós AO vs. FK CSKA 1948 Sofia end in a draw?this page
- Will FK CSKA 1948 Sofia win on 2026-08-05?No won
- Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-08-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.