Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x821489e3a944d38a318785108638cf38d05cddca00e7b4b799bdef3365fdcd6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 313.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.48 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked No | 5c | 306.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 51c | 298.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 279.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 273.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 260.47$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 8c | 129.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 56c | 122.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 69c | 98.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 53c | 90.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3380…da7ebacked No | 62c | 83.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 44c | 81.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 43c | 74.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 37c | 71.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…2c2bbacked Yes | 68c | 70.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 44c | 61.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 58.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 54c | 58.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 57.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 50.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 49.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 54c | 45.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 41.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 50c | 37.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 30.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 29.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 57c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…e07dbacked Yes | 39c | 25.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…91cebacked Yes | 49c | 24.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…9f22backed Yes | 54c | 21.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 20.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 63c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 64c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 17.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 15.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 66c | 15.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9611…f9aabacked Yes | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.