Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92b7f0c046452125e07f1eef309de14cd12c641a37f2d7f98e6330ca407bd784
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 435.91$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 308.65$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 263.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 261.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 43c | 175.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 76c | 158.26$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 151.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 23c | 121.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 119.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 57c | 102.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…d953backed Yes | 49c | 98.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 64c | 96.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 16c | 95.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 70c | 91.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 32c | 87.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 73.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed No | 70c | 67.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 64.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 62c | 61.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed No | 65c | 59.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 44c | 56.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 53.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 52.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 48.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 47.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 40c | 45.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 42.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 41c | 42.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 79c | 37.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 55c | 35.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 35c | 33.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 43c | 31.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…0307backed No | 62c | 31.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 36c | 29.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 28.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 58c | 25.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 56c | 22.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 20.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 55c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 60c | 18.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 64c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.