South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-11-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x823537e6303856c022109141ccc7eb9a2ff5cfa09233d0586ed37102df1612f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 61c | 35,000$21,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,650 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 39c | 33,185$12,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,942.15 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 58c | 2,607$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.82 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 39c | 1,750$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.83 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…d74dbacked Yes | 43c | 935.77$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 43c | 930.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 59c | 888.09$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.36 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 43c | 699.94$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 40c | 442.63$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.61 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 59c | 399.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…9ab4backed Yes | 43c | 302.34$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 58c | 230.71$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 39c | 222$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 40c | 208$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed No | 58c | 172.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 41c | 97.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…9283backed No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 39c | 65.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…aad2backed Yes | 42c | 56.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…8150backed No | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…36ddbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd6…ac29backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…e85dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbee5…d25cbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf96…7d12backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 44c | 45.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 58c | 44.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…44dfbacked Yes | 46c | 43.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked Yes | 42c | 38.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0a…f285backed Yes | 42c | 32.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 58c | 28.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 57c | 23.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-11-02?this page
- Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.