Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x826e487b1b3bde38c96f065d6deea007ad6f0e1daa872f5c8cd7d872dee2724f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x633e…d305backed Over | 61c | 22,990$14,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,042.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 39c | 7,007$2,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,274 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 6,077$4,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,844.51 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 39c | 4,972$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,033.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 2,869$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.33 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 40c | 1,896$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 40c | 1,591$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.81 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 39c | 1,437$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.57 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 38c | 1,232$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.84 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 40c | 541.31$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 38c | 493$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 39c | 479$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.19 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…3b3bbacked Over | 72c | 357.36$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 80c | 300.17$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 42c | 285$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.87 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 39c | 180.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 110.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 41c | 107.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 61c | 97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 39c | 83.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 79.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 53c | 78.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 71c | 74.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 35c | 74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 73c | 69.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 70c | 62.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 60c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 40c | 57.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 38c | 48.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x807a…3be2backed Over | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 60c | 35.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 61c | 30.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Under | 40c | 30.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…7ba8backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…a02dbacked Over | 61c | 19.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 72c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 2.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 1.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 4.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SG Dynamo Dresden (-2.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.