NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Nuggets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82831fa5383c84c731ab2d4f921d66cee1dedc6063c1991296ea53c6f28aaa7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Raptors, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Raptors | 37c | 9,361$3,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,461 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Nuggets | 59c | 5,102$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,107.58 | 367 | 48.2%177 W · 190 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Nuggets | 76c | 2,805$2,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Raptors | 19c | 2,509$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.64 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Raptors | 56c | 2,200$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.81 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Raptors | 24c | 1,939$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.75 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Raptors | 42c | 1,773$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.76 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Nuggets | 73c | 1,450$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.67 | 238 | 35.7%85 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Nuggets | 39c | 1,288$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.24 | 270 | 41.5%112 W · 158 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.25 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Raptors | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Raptors | 19c | 913.85$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.63 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Raptors | 68c | 862.03$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.68 | 259 | 39%101 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Nuggets | 53c | 748.19$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.14 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Nuggets | 64c | 721.02$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.08 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Raptors | 37c | 699.37$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.89 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Nuggets | 38c | 560.28$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.4 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Nuggets | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…06b1backed Raptors | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Raptors | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Raptors | 22c | 412.87$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 117 | 19.7%23 W · 94 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Nuggets | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 183 | 16.9%31 W · 152 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Raptors | 28c | 361.77$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 191 | 37.7%72 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…8463backed Raptors | 24c | 334.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Raptors | 39c | 318.19$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 269 | 34.9%94 W · 175 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…91e3backed Nuggets | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed Raptors | 71c | 294.55$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.88 | 153 | 41.8%64 W · 89 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…f625backed Raptors | 24c | 291.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…2032backed Raptors | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f9…ccb1backed Nuggets | 49c | 254.44$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc0…8c5ebacked Raptors | 64c | 247.27$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nuggets | 71c | 244.96$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78da…9d47backed Nuggets | 62c | 226.01$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…ee60backed Nuggets | 52c | 212.41$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Nuggets | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 184 | 37.5%69 W · 115 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7405…2797backed Raptors | 26c | 141.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Raptors | 31c | 141.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed Raptors | 22c | 113.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked Nuggets | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5433…0d50backed Nuggets | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Nuggets | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead7…efedbacked Nuggets | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4384…f52fbacked Raptors | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…be38backed Raptors | 54c | 93.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf633…e5efbacked Nuggets | 77c | 90.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…f196backed Raptors | 50c | 89.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…4e95backed Raptors | 32c | 87.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Raptors | 18c | 85.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…3c94backed Nuggets | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Raptors | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 230 | 48.3%111 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9572…b5a0backed Raptors | 77c | 75.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5342…0f95backed Raptors | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Nuggets | 45c | 57.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Raptors | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1e…058dbacked Raptors | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…5c47backed Raptors | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed Nuggets | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde96…5290backed Raptors | 36c | 41.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7742…03e9backed Raptors | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -17.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Nuggets | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 395 | 48.4%191 W · 204 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a49…413fbacked Raptors | 49c | 36.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked Raptors | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…7524backed Raptors | 59c | 28.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Nuggets | 74c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Nuggets | 77c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…0f73backed Nuggets | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.