Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 0-29 tweets on September 6, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8284dfa4872bc7e68a597abd7333ee9d3a1696b7ad8a5ac9b48c8c8d549bb002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 39c | 121$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…8086backed No | 54c | 99.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…923bbacked Yes | 42c | 87.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 53c | 74.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 29c | 51.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…a490backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +215.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 46c | 36.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 35c | 31.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 28.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…9762backed Yes | 49c | 26.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…ca14backed Yes | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…efc8backed Yes | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bed…89adbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 0-29 tweets on September 6, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 30-39 tweets on September 6, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets on September 6, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets on September 6, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80+ tweets on September 6, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.