NHL · resolved market
Will James Hagens be drafted in the top 5 of the 2025 NHL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82899fb392220dab0cbab53ee1d57f7b14d015ef6db6c1360d0c77e8bbe5ae41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 55c | 3,666$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.62 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 46c | 2,642$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.21 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 37c | 669.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 62c | 644.26$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.38 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 749 | 51.8%388 W · 361 L | +18.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 48c | 206.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 101 | 24.8%25 W · 76 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…b5a2backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f8…4974backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 51c | 28.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 69c | 22.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7717…40c9backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will James Hagens be drafted in the top 5 of the 2025 NHL Draft?this page
- Will Porter Martone be drafted in the top 5 of the 2025 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Radim Mrtka be drafted in the top 5 of the 2025 NHL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.